Statistical Modelling of Recent Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

1. Person: Chu, Lan-Fen
Weitere Personen: McAleer, Michael; Wang, Szu-Hua
Format: Online-Artikel
Sprache: English
Veröffentlicht: Tinbergen Institute 2012
Serien: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper
Schlagworte: Wetter
Sturm
Statistische Verteilung
Taiwan
Weather
Storm
Statistical distribution
Taiwan
Online Zugang: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/87174/1/13-004.pdf
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Details: This paper has two primary purposes. First, we fit the annual maximum daily rainfall data for 6 rainfall stations, both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for the periods 1911-2010 and 1960-2010 in Taiwan, and detect the changes between the two phases for extreme rainfall. The non-stationary model means that the location parameter in the GEV distribution is a linear function of time to detect temporal trends in maximum rainfall. Second, we compute the future behavior of stationary models for the return levels of 10, 20, 50 and 100-years based on the period 1960-2010. In addition, the 95% confidence intervals of the return levels are provided. This is the first investigation to use generalized extreme value distributions to model extreme rainfall in Taiwan.

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