The economics of growth

This comprehensive introduction to economic growth presents the main facts and puzzles about growth, proposes simple methods and models needed to explain these facts, acquaints the reader with the most recent theoretical and empirical developments, and provides tools with which to analyze policy des... Ausführliche Beschreibung

1. Person: Aghion, Philippe
Weitere Personen: Howitt, Peter
Format: Buch
Sprache: English
Veröffentlicht: Cambridge, Mass. [u.a.] MIT Press 2009
Beschreibung: XXII, 495 S. graph. Darst.
Schlagworte (SWD): Wirtschaftswachstum
Schlagworte (SH): Economic development
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Anmerkung: Includes bibliographical references and index
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520 |a This comprehensive introduction to economic growth presents the main facts and puzzles about growth, proposes simple methods and models needed to explain these facts, acquaints the reader with the most recent theoretical and empirical developments, and provides tools with which to analyze policy design. The treatment of growth theory is fully accessible to students with a background no more advanced than elementary calculus and probability theory; the reader need not master all the subtleties of dynamic programming and stochastic processes to learn what is essential about such issues as cross-country convergence, the effects of financial development on growth, and the consequences of globalization. The book, which grew out of courses taught by the authors at Harvard and Brown universities, can be used both by advanced undergraduate and graduate students, and as a reference for professional economists in government or international financial organizations. The Economics of Growth first presents the main growth paradigms: the neoclassical model, the AK model, Romer's product variety model, and the Schumpeterian model. The text then builds on the main paradigms to shed light on the dynamic process of growth and development, discussing such topics as club convergence, directed technical change, the transition from Malthusian stagnation to sustained growth, general purpose technologies, and the recent debate over institutions versus human capital as the primary factor in cross-country income differences. Finally, the book focuses on growth policies--analyzing the effects of liberalizing market competition and entry, education policy, trade liberalization, environmental and resource constraints, and stabilization policy--and the methodology of growth policy design. All chapters include literature reviews and problem sets. An appendix covers basic concepts of econometrics. 
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992 |a THE ECONOMICS OF GROWTH PHILIPPE AGHION AND PETER HOWITT WITH THE COLLABORATION OF LEONARDO BURSZTYN THE MIT PRESS CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS LONDON, ENGLAND CONTENTS PREFACE WHY THIS BOOK? FOR WHOM? OUTLINE OF THE BOOK XVII XVII XVIII XIX XXI ACKNOWLEDGMENTS INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 WHY STUDY ECONOMIC GROWTH? 1 1.2 SOME FACTS AND PUZZLES 1 1.2.1 GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION 1 1.2.2 CONVERGENCE 2 1.2.3 GROWTH AND INEQUALITY 4 1.2.4 THE TRANSITION FROM STAGNATION TO GROWTH 5 1.2.5 FINANCE AND GROWTH 5 1.3 GROWTH POLICIES 6 1.3.1 COMPETITION AND ENTRY 7 1.3.2 EDUCATION AND DISTANCE TO FRONTIER 8 1.3.3 MACROECONOMIC POLICY AND GROWTH 10 1.3.4 TRADE AND GROWTH 10 1.3.5 DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH 11 1.4 FOUR GROWTH PARADIGMS 12 1.4.1 THE NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL 12 1.4.2 THE AK MODEL 13 1.4.3 THE PRODUCT-VARIETY MODEL 14 1.4.4 THE SCHUMPETERIAN MODEL 15 PART I: BASIC PARADIGMS OF GROWTH THEORY 19 1 NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH THEORY 21 1.1 INTRODUCTION 21 1.2 THE SOLOW-SWAN MODEL 21 1.2.1 POPULATION GROWTH 24 1.2.2 EXOGENOUS TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE 27 1.2.3 CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE 29 1.3 EXTENSION: THE CASS-KOOPMANS-RAMSEY MODEL 31 1.3.1 NO TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS 31 VIII CONTENTS 1.3.2 EXOGENOUS TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE 1.4 CONCLUSION 1.5 LITERATURE NOTES APPENDIX 1A: STEADY STATE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE CASS-KOOPMANS-RAMSEY MODEL 39 37 39 43 40 45 APPENDIX IB: DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION USING THE HAMILTONIAN PROBLEMS 2 THE AK MODEL 47 2.1 INTRODUCTION 47 2.1.1 THE HARROD-DOMAR MODEL 48 2.2 A NEOCLASSICAL VERSION OF HARROD-DOMAR 49 2.2.1 BASIC SETUP 49 2.2.2 THREE CASES 51 2.3 AN AK MODEL WITH INTERTEMPORAL UTILITY MAXIMIZATION 52 2.3.1 THE SETUP 53 2.3.2 LONG-RUN GROWTH 54 2.3.3 WELFARE 55 2.3.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS 55 2.4 THE DEBATE BETWEEN NEOCLASSICAL AND AK ADVOCATES, IN A NUTSHELL 56 2.5 AN OPEN-ECONOMY AK MODEL WITH CONVERGENCE 60 2.5.1 A TWO-SECTOR CLOSED ECONOMY 61 2.5.2 OPENING UP THE ECONOMY WITH FIXED TERMS OF TRADE 62 2.5.3 CLOSING THE MODEL WITH A TWO-COUNTRY ANALYSIS 64 2.5.4 
992 |a CONCLUDING COMMENT 66 2.6 CONCLUSION 66 2.7 LITERATURE NOTES 67 PROBLEMS 67 3 PRODUCT VARIETY 69 3.1 INTRODUCTION 69 3.2 ENDOGENIZING TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE 69 3.2.1 A SIMPLE VARIANT OF THE PRODUCT-VARIETY MODEL 70 3.2.2 THE ROMER MODEL WITH LABOR AS R&D INPUT 74 3.3 FROM THEORY TO EVIDENCE 77 3.3.1 ESTIMATING THE EFFECT OF VARIETY ON PRODUCTIVITY 77 CONTENTS IX 3.3.2 THE IMPORTANCE OF EXIT IN THE GROWTH PROCESS 80 79 82 81 3.4 CONCLUSION 3.5 LITERATURE NOTES PROBLEMS 4 THE SCHUMPETERIAN MODEL 85 4.1 INTRODUCTION 85 4.2 A ONE-SECTOR MODEL 85 4.2.1 THE BASICS 85 4.2.2 PRODUCTION AND PROFITS 86 4.2.3 INNOVATION 87 4.2.4 RESEARCH ARBITRAGE 88 4.2.5 GROWTH 89 4.2.6 A VARIANT WITH NONDRASTIC INNOVATIONS 90 4.2.7 COMPARATIVE STATICS 91 4.3 A MULTISECTOR MODEL 92 4.3.1 PRODUCTION AND PROFIT 92 4.3.2 INNOVATION AND RESEARCH ARBITRAGE 94 4.3.3 GROWTH 95 4.4 SCALE EFFECTS 96 4.5 CONCLUSION 99 4.6 LITERATURE NOTES 100 PROBLEMS 101 5 CAPITAL, INNOVATION, AND GROWTH ACCOUNTING 105 5.1 INTRODUCTION 105 5.2 MEASURING THE GROWTH OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY 106 5.2.1 EMPIRICAL RESULTS 107 5.3 SOME PROBLEMS WITH GROWTH ACCOUNTING 109 5.3.1 PROBLEMS IN MEASURING CAPITAL, AND THE TYRANNY OF NUMBERS 109 5.3.2 ACCOUNTING VERSUS CAUSATION 112 5.4 CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND INNOVATION 113 5.4.1 THE BASICS 114 5.4.2 INNOVATION AND GROWTH 116 5.4.3 STEADY-STATE CAPITAL AND GROWTH 116 5.4.4 IMPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH ACCOUNTING 118 X CONTENTS 5.5 CONCLUSION 5.6 LITERATURE NOTES APPENDIX: TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS 119 119 121 120 PROBLEMS PART II: UNDERSTANDING THE GROWTH PROCESS 127 6 FINANCE AND GROWTH 129 6.1 INTRODUCTION 129 6.2 INNOVATION AND GROWTH WITH FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS 130 6.2.1 BASIC SETUP 130 6.2.2 INNOVATION TECHNOLOGY AND GROWTH WITHOUT CREDIT CONSTRAINT 132 6.2.3 CREDIT CONSTRAINTS: A MODEL WITH EX ANTE SCREENING 132 6.2.4 A MODEL WITH EX POST MONITORING AND MORAL HAZARD 134 6.3 CREDIT CONSTRAINTS, WEALTH INEQUALITY, AND GROWTH 
992 |a 136 6.3.1 DIMINISHING MARGINAL PRODUCT OF CAPITAL 136 6.3.2 PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES 139 6.4 THE EMPIRICAL FINDINGS: LEVINE'S SURVEY, IN A NUTSHELL 142 6.4.1 CROSS-COUNTRY 143 6.4.2 CROSS-INDUSTRY 145 6.5 CONCLUSION 147 6.6 LITERATURE NOTES 147 PROBLEMS 148 7 TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND CROSS-COUNTRY CONVERGENCE 151 7.1 INTRODUCTION 151 7.2 A MODEL OF CLUB CONVERGENCE 152 7.2.1 BASICS 152 7.2.2 INNOVATION 153 7.2.3 PRODUCTIVITY AND DISTANCE TO FRONTIER 154 7.2.4 CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE 156 7.3 CREDIT CONSTRAINTS AS A SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE 158 7.3.1 THEORY 159 7.3.2 EVIDENCE 161 7.4 CONCLUSION 163 7.5 LITERATURE NOTES 165 PROBLEMS 166 CONTENTS XI 8 MARKET SIZE AND DIRECTED TECHNICAL CHANGE 8.1 INTRODUCTION 8.2.1 THEORY 8.2 MARKET SIZE IN DRUGS 8.2.2 EVIDENCE 8.3 WAGE INEQUALITY 8.3.1 THE DEBATE 8.3.2 THE MARKET-SIZE EXPLANATION 8.4 APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES 169 169 169 169 171 173 176 174 182 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 8.4.1 BASIC SETUP 8.4.2 EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUT AND PROFITS 8.4.3 SKILL-BIASED TECHNICAL CHANGE 8.4.4 EXPLAINING CROSS-COUNTRY PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES 8.5 CONCLUSION 8.6 LITERATURE NOTES PROBLEMS 9 GENERAL-PURPOSE TECHNOLOGIES 193 9.1 INTRODUCTION 193 9.2 EXPLAINING PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWNS 196 9.2.1 GENERAL-PURPOSE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL 196 9.2.2 SCHUMPETERIAN WAVES 198 9.3 GPT AND WAGE INEQUALITY 204 9.3.1 EXPLAINING THE INCREASE IN THE SKILL PREMIUM 204 9.3.2 EXPLAINING THE INCREASE IN WITHIN-GROUP INEQUALITY 206 9.4 CONCLUSION 210 9.5 LITERATURE NOTES 211 PROBLEMS 212 10 STAGES OF GROWTH 217 10.1 INTRODUCTION 217 10.2 FROM STAGNATION TO GROWTH 217 10.2.1 MALTHUSIAN STAGNATION 217 10.2.2 THE TRANSITION TO GROWTH 222 10.2.3 COMMENTARY 224 10.3 FROM CAPITAL ACCUMULATION TO INNOVATION 226 10.3.1 HUMAN-CAPITAL ACCUMULATION 226 XII CONTENTS 10.3.2 PHYSICAL-CAPITAL ACCUMULATION 227 10.4 FROM MANUFACTURING TO SERVICES 230 10.5 CONCLUSION 232 10.6 LITERATURE NOTES 
992 |a 232 PROBLEMS 233 11 INSTITUTIONS AND NONCONVERGENCE TRAPS 237 11.1 INTRODUCTION 237 11.2 DO INSTITUTIONS MATTER? 238 11.2.1 LEGAL ORIGINS 239 11.2.2 COLONIAL ORIGINS 240 11.3 APPROPRIATE INSTITUTIONS AND NONCONVERGENCE TRAPS 243 11.3.1 SOME MOTIVATING FACTS 243 11.3.2 A SIMPLE MODEL OF DISTANCE TO FRONTIER AND APPROPRIATE INSTITUTIONS 246 11.4 CONCLUSION 258 11.5 LITERATURE NOTES 261 PROBLEMS 263 PART III: GROWTH POLICY 265 12 FOSTERING COMPETITION AND ENTRY 267 12.1 INTRODUCTION 267 12.2 FROM LEAPFROGGING TO STEP-BY-STEP TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS 267 12.2.1 BASIC ENVIRONMENT 268 12.2.2 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION 269 12.2.3 EQUILIBRIUM PROFITS AND COMPETITION IN LEVEL AND UNLEVEL SECTORS 269 12.2.4 THE SCHUMPETERIAN AND "ESCAPE-COMPETITION" EFFECTS 271 12.2.5 COMPOSITION EFFECT AND THE INVERTED U 272 12.2.6 EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE 274 12.3 ENTRY 274 12.3.1 THE ENVIRONMENT 276 12.3.2 TECHNOLOGY AND ENTRY 276 12.3.3 EQUILIBRIUM INNOVATION INVESTMENTS 277 12.3.4 THE EFFECT OF LABOR MARKET REGULATIONS 278 12.3.5 MAIN THEORETICAL PREDICTIONS 279 CONTENTS XIII 12.3.6 EVIDENCE ON THE GROWTH EFFECTS OF ENTRY 12.3.7 EVIDENCE ON THE EFFECTS OF (DE)REGULATING ENTRY 280 279 281 282 283 12.4 CONCLUSION 12.5 LITERATURE NOTES PROBLEMS 13 INVESTING IN EDUCATION 287 13.1 INTRODUCTION 287 13.2 THE CAPITAL ACCUMULATION APPROACH 288 13.2.1 BACK TO MANKIW, ROMER, AND WEIL 288 13.2.2 LUCAS 292 13.2.3 THRESHOLD EFFECTS AND LOW-DEVELOPMENT TRAPS 295 13.3 NELSON AND PHELPS AND THE SCHUMPETERIAN APPROACH 297 13.3.1 THE NELSON AND PHELPS APPROACH 297 13.3.2 LOW-DEVELOPMENT TRAPS CAUSED BY THE COMPLEMENTARITY BETWEEN R&D AND EDUCATION INVESTMENTS 300 13.4 SCHUMPETER MEETS GERSCHENKRON 302 13.4.1 A MODEL OF DISTANCE TO FRONTIER AND THE COMPOSITION OF EDUCATION SPENDING 302 13.4.2 CROSS-COUNTRY AND CROSS-U.S.-STATE EVIDENCE 307 13.5 CONCLUSION 311 13.6 LITERATURE NOTES 312 PROBLEMS 314 14 REDUCING VOLATILITY AND RISK 319 14.1 INTRODUCTION 
992 |a 319 14.2 THE AK APPROACH 321 14.2.1 THE JONES, MANUELLI, AND STACCHETTI MODEL 321 14.2.2 COUNTERFACTUALS 324 14.3 SHORT-VERSUS LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS 326 14.3.1 THE ARGUMENT 326 14.3.2 MOTIVATING EVIDENCE 327 14.3.3 THE AABM MODEL 329 14.3.4 CONFRONTING THE CREDIT CONSTRAINTS STORY WITH EVIDENCE 339 14.3.5 AN ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATION FOR THE PROCYCLICALITY OF R&D 340 14.4 RISK DIVERSIFICATION, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, AND GROWTH 341 14.4.1 BASIC FRAMEWORK 341 XIV CONTENTS 14.4.2 ANALYSIS 14.4.3 EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS 345 343 348 347 349 14.5 CONCLUSION 14.6 LITERATURE NOTES PROBLEMS 15 LIBERALIZING TRADE 353 15.1 INTRODUCTION 353 15.2 PRELIMINARY: BACK TO THE MULTISECTOR CLOSED-ECONOMY MODEL 355 15.2.1 PRODUCTION AND NATIONAL INCOME 355 15.2.2 INNOVATION 357 15.3 OPENING UP TO TRADE, ABSTRACTING FROM INNOVATION 358 15.3.1 THE EXPERIMENT 358 15.3.2 THE EFFECTS OF OPENNESS ON NATIONAL INCOME 360 15.4 THE EFFECTS OF OPENNESS ON INNOVATION AND LONG-RUN GROWTH 363 15.4.1 STEP-BY-STEP INNOVATION 363 15.4.2 THREE CASES 364 15.4.3 EQUILIBRIUM INNOVATION AND GROWTH 365 15.4.4 SCALE AND ESCAPE ENTRY 365 15.4.5 THE DISCOURAGEMENT EFFECT OF FOREIGN ENTRY 366 15.4.6 STEADY-STATE AGGREGATE GROWTH 367 15.4.7 HOW TRADE CAN ENHANCE GROWTH IN ALL COUNTRIES 368 15.4.8 HOW TRADE CAN REDUCE GROWTH IN ONE COUNTRY 369 15.5 CONCLUSION 371 15.6 LITERATURE NOTES 372 PROBLEMS 374 16 PRESERVING THE ENVIRONMENT 377 16.1 INTRODUCTION 377 16.2 THE ONE-SECTOR AK MODEL WITH AN EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE 377 16.3 SCHUMPETERIAN GROWTH WITH AN EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE 379 16.4 ENVIRONMENT AND DIRECTED TECHNICAL CHANGE 381 16.4.1 BASIC SETUP 381 16.4.2 EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUTS AND PROFITS 382 16.4.3 TAXING DIRTY PRODUCTION 384 16.4.4 EQUILIBRIUM INNOVATION 385 16.4.5 GROWTH AND THE COST OF TAXING DIRTY OUTPUT 387 CONTENTS XV 16.4.6 EVIDENCE OF DIRECTED TECHNICAL CHANGE EFFECTS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR 389 16.4.7 CONCLUDING REMARKS 390 16.5 LITERATURE NOTES 
992 |a 391 APPENDIX: OPTIMAL SCHUMPETERIAN GROWTH WITH AN EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE 392 PROBLEMS 395 17 PROMOTING DEMOCRACY 399 17.1 INTRODUCTION 399 17.2 DEMOCRACY, INCOME, AND GROWTH IN EXISTING REGRESSIONS 399 17.2.1 IRRELEVANCE RESULTS WHEN CONTROLLING FOR COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS 400 17.2.2 NO APPARENT CORRELATION BETWEEN DEMOCRACY AND PUBLIC POLICY 400 17.3 DEMOCRACY, ENTRY, AND GROWTH: A SIMPLE MODEL 401 17.3.1 PRODUCTION AND PROFITS 402 17.3.2 ENTRY AND INCUMBENT INNOVATION 402 17.3.3 POLITICS AND THE EQUILIBRIUM PROBABILITY OF ENTRY 405 17.3.4 MAIN PREDICTION 407 17.4 EVIDENCE ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEMOCRACY, GROWTH, AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT 407 17.4.1 DATA AND REGRESSION EQUATION 407 17.4.2 BASIC RESULTS 408 17.5 DEMOCRACY, INEQUALITY, AND GROWTH 410 17.5.1 THE MODEL 410 17.5.2 SOLVING THE MODEL 411 17.5.3 DISCUSSION 413 17.6 CONCLUSION 414 17.7 LITERATURE NOTES 414 PROBLEMS 415 CONCLUSION 417 18 LOOKING AHEAD: CULTURE AND DEVELOPMENT 419 18.1 WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED, IN A NUTSHELL 419 18.2 CULTURE AND GROWTH 420 XVI CONTENTS 18.2.2 INVESTING IN CHILDREN'S PATIENCE 18.2.1 REGULATION AND TRUST 18.3 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT 18.3.1 GROWTH THROUGH THE LENS OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS 425 422 429 429 439 434 441 18.3.2 THE CASE FOR TARGETED GROWTH POLICY 18.4 CONCLUSION APPENDIX: SOLVING THE DOEPKE-ZILIBOTTI MODEL APPENDIX : BASIC ELEMENTS OF ECONOMETRICS 443 A.L THE SIMPLE REGRESSION MODEL 443 A.2 THE ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATOR 444 A.3 MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS 446 A.4 INFERENCE AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING 447 A.5 HOW TO DEAL WITH THE ENDOGENEITY PROBLEM 449 A.6 FIXED-EFFECTS REGRESSIONS 452 A.7 READING A REGRESSION TABLE 453 REFERENCES 457 INDEX 477 

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